If you’ve been following 2025 Oscars predictions, you already know this might be the most unpredictable Academy Awards ceremony in recent memory. Between resurfaced controversies, debates about artificial intelligence in filmmaking, and a stacked lineup of worthy contenders, predicting winners feels less like informed analysis and more like reading tea leaves. With nearly 10,000 Academy voters weighing in across major categories, even seasoned film critics are scratching their heads.
The 97th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 2, on ABC and stream live on Hulu beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Hosted by Conan O’Brien, the ceremony promises drama on and off the stage. Below, my breakdown of Oscars 2025 nominees across the major categories separates who deserves to win from who likely will take home the gold.
The Controversies Shaping the Race
Before diving into category-by-category 2025 Oscars predictions, let’s acknowledge the chaos swirling around the front-runners. “Emilia Pérez” entered awards season with a record-breaking 13 nominations, only to face turbulence when old tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced. Meanwhile, “The Brutalist” (10 nominations) sparked debate over its use of AI to help Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones deliver Hungarian dialogue.
“Anora” (six nominations) raised eyebrows after Mikey Madison revealed the film shot intimate scenes without an intimacy coordinator. And “Wicked” faces an existential question: can Part 1 truly compete for best picture when its story concludes in Part 2 this November?
None of these issues reflect poorly on the quality of the work itself, but they absolutely shape how voters approach their ballots.
Best Actor Predictions: A Generational Showdown
The nominees are Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), and Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”).
Who Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet’s portrayal of young Bob Dylan transcends imitation. He doesn’t merely capture Dylan’s gravelly vocals or signature harmonica riffs; he embodies the restless reinvention that defined a generation. This performance moves beyond impersonation into something genuinely artistic, capturing the petulant arrogance and creative fury of a Nobel laureate in the making. At 29, a Chalamet win would make him the youngest best actor winner ever, narrowly beating Brody’s previous record.
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody
Sorry to disappoint the Timmy fans, but Brody remains the favorite. His towering performance as László Tóth, a Hungarian Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor rebuilding his life in postwar America, represents everything the Academy loves: transformation, emotional depth, and historical weight. Brody previously held the youngest best actor record when he won for “The Pianist” at 29, and his “Brutalist” work feels destined to deliver his second Oscar. Among Oscar best actor predictions, this one feels nearly locked.
Best Actress Predictions: Youth vs. Comeback
The nominees are Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”).
Who Should Win: Mikey Madison
The Academy has a soft spot for young breakthroughs. Think Audrey Hepburn, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Jennifer Lawrence. Madison, 25, delivers exactly that energy in “Anora,” playing a sex worker who marries into a Russian oligarch’s family and discovers fairy tales don’t exist. Her blend of comedic timing and dramatic vulnerability makes her performance unforgettable.
Who Will Win: Demi Moore
If there’s one thing the Academy adores more than discovering new talent, it’s celebrating comebacks. Moore earned her first nomination at 62 for “The Substance,” a razor-sharp horror satire about Hollywood’s obsession with youth. Her Golden Globes speech, where she spoke about being dismissed as a “popcorn actress,” resonated with anyone who’s felt written off. The emotional narrative is irresistible, and when it comes to best actress Oscar predictions, Moore’s redemption arc has serious momentum.
Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Two Succession Stars Collide
The nominees are Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), and Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”).
Who Should Win: Jeremy Strong
Strong delivers villainy at its finest as Roy Cohn, the ruthless lawyer who mentored a young Donald Trump. His performance balances demonic humor with unexpected pathos, finding the battered soul beneath the bluster. Strong’s Cohn is magnetic, dangerous, and uncomfortably familiar.
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Culkin’s turn as Benji in “A Real Pain” is essentially a lead performance masquerading as supporting. His portrayal of a misfit traveling through Holocaust sites in Poland with his cousin (director Jesse Eisenberg) is touching, hilarious, and devastating. If there’s a sure thing in Academy Awards 2025 predictions, it’s Culkin.
Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Subtlety vs. Spectacle
The nominees are Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”).
Who Should Win: Isabella Rossellini
In the male-dominated world of “Conclave,” Rossellini creates a complete character through stillness and silence. As Sister Agnes, the lone female cardinal, she becomes the film’s moral compass and emotional anchor, a first-time nominee who proves that less truly is more.
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Despite the controversies around “Emilia Pérez,” Saldaña’s performance as the lawyer at the story’s center should survive unscathed. She demonstrates range far beyond her action franchise roots, particularly in her showstopping number “El Mal.” When Oscars 2025 predictions size up this category, Saldaña’s boldness wins out.
Best Picture Predictions: A Two-Horse Race
The nominees include “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” and “Wicked.”
Who Should Win: “The Brutalist”
By every measure of ambition, craft, and emotional resonance, Brady Corbet’s immigrant epic deserves the top prize. The technical achievements, from cinematography to score, set a new standard. Yes, at three hours and 35 minutes it’s long, but length didn’t stop “Oppenheimer.” “The Brutalist” tackles the American immigrant experience with scale and intimacy rarely achieved. Among best picture predictions 2025, this is the film that should prevail.
Who Will Win: “Conclave” in a Squeaker Over “Anora”
This is the tightest race of the night. “Anora” claimed victories at the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards, making it the cool kids’ favorite. But “Conclave” won the BAFTAs and just grabbed the SAG ensemble cast trophy, the largest voting bloc in Oscar predictions. Conservative voters may blanch at “Anora’s” explicit content, while finding comfort in “Conclave’s” classical approach. Expect a nail-biting finish.
Final Thoughts on the 2025 Academy Awards
Whether you’re placing friendly bets or simply tuning in for the spectacle, these 2025 Oscars predictions offer one certainty: this year’s ceremony will be anything but boring. With groundbreaking performances, genuine surprises, and enough controversy to fuel water-cooler talk for weeks, the 97th Academy Awards promises memorable moments across every category. Mark your calendar for March 2 and prepare for a night where image, merit, and sheer unpredictability collide on Hollywood’s biggest stage.